Surbiton Associates, a Melbourne-based mining consultancy, predicts that Australian gold output will climb as companies develop current mines before a new wave of projects begin later this decade.
Last year, the country produced 303 tons, valued A$54 billion (C$53.2 billion). Northern Star Resources’ (ASX: NST) Super Pit, roughly 600 kilometres east of Perth, anchors the near-term gains, with construction beginning on a plant that will more than double annual processing capacity to 27 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes.
“Several significant expansions of existing operations will occur in late 2026 and early 2027,” Surbiton Associates director Sandra Close stated in a press release prepared for the Diggers & Dealers conference this week. “Of these Super Pit will be the largest by far, with its treatment capacity doubling.”
The expansion could increase national production above the level it has maintained since 2017, replacing ounces lost as older mines close. Higher gold prices have made it more profitable to process low-grade stockpiles and smaller discoveries across Australia’s approximately 80 primary gold mines and 20 facilities that recover gold as a byproduct.
Northern Star wants to feed the new Super Pit plant with massive stockpiles of low-grade material, which has become economically viable due to higher gold prices. The company has begun commissioning the new circuit.
Newmont (NYSE, ASX: NEM; TSX: NGT) has invested more than A$2.3 billion in a new shaft at its Tanami mine in the Northern Territory. The shaft is designed to lift 3.8 million tonnes of ore per year, replacing a truck haulage system that could only transport 2.7 million tonnes. The major expects the initiative to save expenses while increasing annual production by approximately 150,000 oz.
Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) is expanding its Karlawinda plant in Western Australia from 4 million to 6.5 million tonnes per year. The company anticipates the upgrade to increase production to 150,000 ounces per year.
Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU) intends to increase processing capacity at King of the Hills by 50%, to 7.5 million tonnes per year, boosting gold output by an estimated 35%. Commissioning is expected for mid-2027, however Vault’s planned merger with Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) may alter the scope or timeframe.
Next Wave Ora Banda Mining (ASX: OBM) intends to develop a 3 million-tonne-per-year factory at Davyhurst, Western Australia, for A$375 million. The company plans to begin production in the second half of 2028.
Capricorn Metals proposes to commission Mt Gibson in early 2028, with a production capacity of 260,000 oz. per year. The project has 150.9 million indicated tonnes grading 1 gram gold per tonne for 4.7 million oz and 38.1 million inferred tonnes at 0.8 gram for 969,000 oz. Probable reserves are 119.3 million tonnes at 1 gram = 3.67 million ounces.
Minerals 260 (ASX: MI6) aims to begin production at Bullabulling in late 2028. The Western Australian project contains 140 million indicated tonnes grading 0.98 gram gold per tonne for 4.4 million ounces and 51 million inferred tonnes at 1 gram for 1.7 million ounces. Based on the earlier December 2025 estimate, probable reserves total 90 million tonnes at 0.86 gram per 2.5 million oz.
Longer duration. Northern Star’s Hemi project is the largest late-stage addition to Surbiton’s projection. Starting in 2030, the business aims to process 10 million tonnes of ore per year and produce approximately 550,000 oz.
Vista Gold (TSX, NYSE-A: VGZ) plans to bring Mt Todd in the Northern Territory into production by 2030. The company expects to produce around 150,000 oz. per year from 5 million tonnes of ore.
Mt Todd poses execution risk. A prior development attempt failed because to hard ore, poor recoveries, and excessive reagent use, leaving Vista to demonstrate that the deposit can be operated profitably.
Regis Resources’ (ASX: RRL) McPhillamys project in New South Wales continues subject to regulatory approvals before a final investment decision in 2028.
