The shift toward gold and oil among UAE investors is real, according to new survey data, but the narrative that crypto is being “left behind” is an oversimplification. Here is what is happening on the ground.
📊 UAE Retail Investors Shift Toward Commodities
A new eToro survey of 1,000 UAE retail investors shows commodities are now the most widely held asset class in the country — overtaking crypto for the first time.
| Metric | August 2025 | April 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities holders | 47% | 56% | +9 pts |
| Crypto holders | 54% | 54% | — |
Commodities recorded the largest increase across all tracked asset classes. Gold anchors commodity allocations — 88% of commodity investors hold gold, followed by oil at 47% and silver at 41%.
Among investors adjusting portfolios due to Middle East tensions, 56% are adding precious metals and 43% are adding energy commodities. Nearly half of commodity investors now allocate over 20% of their portfolio to these assets.
Sentiment is strongly bullish: 92% expect oil prices to rise in the next six months, and 84% expect gold prices to rise. Nearly half believe oil could surge over 15%, while more than half see gold climbing over 10%.
⚠️ Geopolitical Tensions Drive the Shift
The primary catalyst is the intensifying US‑Iran conflict. Missile and drone attacks have rattled Dubai, closing airspace, disrupting trade, and creating physical risk that was previously abstract.
The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 15–20% of global oil passes — has been effectively closed, creating what Goldman Sachs calls the largest oil supply shock in history. The International Energy Agency now forecasts a global contraction in both oil supply and demand, with supply losses reaching 10.1 million bpd in March.
This environment has made tangible assets like gold and oil immediately responsive to global events, while crypto has been caught in the same risk‑off volatility as equities. One analyst summed up the sentiment: “Iran‑linked attacks are hammering Dubai’s property and gold while oil jumps … pushing some crypto workers out”.
📈 Gold and Oil Outlooks Remain Strong
Gold: Prices have given back some 2026 gains, but structural support remains. Central bank buying, which picked up sharply after 2022, is “unlikely to fade” as Western fiscal profiles deteriorate. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $5,400/oz by end‑2026, driven by sustained official‑sector purchases and expected Fed rate cuts. The combination of geopolitical risk, energy‑driven inflation, and conflict‑related fiscal costs is reinforcing gold’s role as a portfolio hedge.
Oil: The market outlook has been upended. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85/barrel (from $77) as the Hormuz disruption inflicts the largest supply shock in history. The IEA warns that resuming Hormuz flows is “the single most important variable” for easing energy pressures.
📜 Crypto Regulation Is Tightening — But Adoption Continues
The UAE is not abandoning crypto; it is maturing its regulatory framework.
- DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority) implemented major updates on 12 January 2026, shifting from a regulator‑led token suitability assessment to a firm‑led model — giving licensed firms more responsibility but also more flexibility.
- Federal Crypto Law (Decision No. 4/R.M/2026), issued in February 2026, consolidates the regulatory landscape into a single rulebook, establishes eight licensed activity categories, imposes capital requirements from AED 500,000 to AED 4 million, and prohibits privacy tokens and algorithmic tokens.
- The UAE has also moved to clamp down on crypto‑real estate money laundering, requiring agents to report any property transactions involving virtual assets.
These moves signal a deliberate effort to build a safe, transparent, and well‑regulated digital assets environment — not to push crypto out.
🏦 Institutional Crypto Adoption Is Growing, Not Shrinking
While retail crypto holdings have plateaued at 54%, institutional interest has never been stronger — a crucial nuance the headline numbers miss.
Sovereign wealth funds have built one of the world’s largest sovereign Bitcoin positions, exceeding $900 million by February 2026. More than $500 million is held via BlackRock’s IBIT ETF through Abu Dhabi funds. Abu Dhabi’s Investment Council tripled its Bitcoin exposure in Q3 2025.
Emirates NBD (UAE’s second‑largest bank, ~$272 billion in assets) publicly characterized Bitcoin as “digital gold” in February 2026 and is exploring adding it to its investment portfolio. Its CIO Maurice Gravier emphasized BTC’s proof‑of‑work security, limited supply, and low inflation as attributes attractive to institutions. Analysts estimate an allocation could range from 0.5% to 1% of a balanced portfolio.
This creates a striking divergence: retail is rotating toward tangible commodities in response to immediate geopolitical shocks, while sovereign wealth funds are accumulating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
🔮 Outlook
The survey confirms a genuine shift in retail investor preferences, driven by real‑world geopolitical risks that make gold and oil immediately responsive. Crypto’s retail ownership has stalled, but the regulatory framework is becoming clearer and institutional adoption is accelerating.
The divergence between retail caution and sovereign conviction may well define the UAE’s investment landscape in the coming months.
